The May 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The May 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 9, 2019.  The headline is “Nearly 70% of Economists Expect Faster Wage Growth Over Next Year, WSJ Survey Says.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Just over a third of economists, 35.7%, expect the next recession to start in 2020, while 52.4% expect it will start in 2021. That marked a shift from the prior two surveys, when nearly half of respondents expected the next recession to start in 2020. In April, 40% predicted the next downturn will start in 2021, while in March about a third forecast a downturn to begin in 2021.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 22.79%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 45%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey was 25.80%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 60 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted May 3 – May 7, 2019.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.3%

full-year 2020:  1.8%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.8%

December 2021: 4.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 2.75%

December 2020: 2.80%

December 2021: 2.82%

CPI:

December 2019:  2.20%

December 2020:  2.10%

December 2021:  2.10%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2019: $62.10

for 12/31/2020: $60.56

for 12/31/2021: $60.07

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2870.72 as this post is written