The August 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The August 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 8, 2019.  The headline is “Economists See Greater Chance of September Rate Cut, WSJ Survey Says.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The overwhelming majority of economists—87.8%—also see risks to the economic outlook as tilted to the downside. That was up from 69.6% last month and the highest level since the start of 2015. Most respondents mentioned trade as the main risk to the economy.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 33.57%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 10% to 65%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey was 30.10%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted August 2 – August 5, 2019.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.21%

full-year 2020:  1.75%

full-year 2021:  1.80%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.65%

December 2020: 3.90%

December 2021: 4.04%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 2.01%

December 2020: 2.19%

December 2021: 2.39%

CPI:

December 2019:  1.98%

December 2020:  1.94%

December 2021:  2.14%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2019: $55.85

for 12/31/2020: $56.90

for 12/31/2021: $58.77

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2938.09 as this post is written