The September 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The September 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 12, 2019.  The headline is “Economists Don’t See Path to 3% Growth in 2019.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The Trump administration’s goal of achieving economic growth of 3% or better is looking increasingly remote this year, according to forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

Private-sector economists surveyed in recent days expect U.S. gross domestic product to expand an inflation-adjusted 2.2% this year on average, measured from the fourth quarter a year earlier. Forecasters expect economic growth will slow to 1.7% in 2020 and will be 1.9% in 2021.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 34.79%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 10% to 67%.  For reference, the average response in August’s survey was 33.57%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 60 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted September 6 – September 10, 2019.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.20%

full-year 2020:  1.68%

full-year 2021:  1.85%

full-year 2022:  1.99%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.67%

December 2020: 3.87%

December 2021: 4.09%

December 2022: 4.13%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 1.69%

December 2020: 1.97%

December 2021: 2.24%

December 2022: 2.41%

CPI:

December 2019:  2.01%

December 2020:  2.01%

December 2021:  2.15%

December 2022:  2.10%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2019: $56.58

for 12/31/2020: $56.45

for 12/31/2021: $58.41

for 12/31/2022: $58.36

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3009.57 as this post is written