The October 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The October 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 10, 2019.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Majority of Economists Say Manufacturing Sector in Recession.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

U.S. manufacturing is in recession, two-thirds of economic forecasters said in a survey, and overall growth in the second half of 2019 is expected to further slow.

In a Wall Street Journal economic survey conducted in recent days, 65.3% of private-sector forecasters said the manufacturing sector was in recession, or two or more consecutive quarters of contraction.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 34.19%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 10% to 70%.  For reference, the average response in September’s survey was 34.79%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 55 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted October 4 – October 8, 2019.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.17%

full-year 2020:  1.61%

full-year 2021:  1.85%

full-year 2022:  1.95%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.61%

December 2020: 3.89%

December 2021: 4.02%

December 2022: 4.07%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 1.68%

December 2020: 1.92%

December 2021: 2.28%

December 2022: 2.54%

CPI:

December 2019:  2.02%

December 2020:  2.04%

December 2021:  2.16%

December 2022:  2.19%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2019: $54.92

for 12/31/2020: $54.93

for 12/31/2021: $57.45

for 12/31/2022: $57.63

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2938.13 as this post is written