U.S. Economic Indicators
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate.
The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. economy is undergoing an outsized level of economic contraction. However, most people believe that this historic level of contraction will be temporary in nature and that an economic rebound will start in the third quarter of 2020.
As seen in the July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey the consensus (average estimate) among various economists is for -5.64% GDP growth in 2020 and 4.70% GDP growth in 2021.
Charts Indicating U.S. Economic Weakness
Below are a small sampling of charts that depict weak growth or contraction, and a brief comment for each:
The Weekly Economic Index (WEI)
A recently-introduced indicator, the Weekly Economic Index, is an economic indicator that is a composite of 10 different weekly indicators. It is (purportedly) designed to provide a timely depiction of the U.S. economic trend. As seen below, it depicts the severity of the recent plunge in economic activity.
The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) with a value of -6.37, updated as of August 11, 2020 (incorporating data through August 8, 2020):
source: Lewis, Daniel J., Mertens, Karel and Stock, James H., Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock) [WEI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, accessed August 11, 2020; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WEI
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Value of Manufacturers’ New Orders for Consumer Goods Industries (ACOGNO)
A measure for consumer goods exhibiting a recent outsized weakening followed by a partial rebound is the “Value of Manufacturers’ New Orders for Consumer Goods Industries” (ACOGNO). Shown below is this measure with last value of $189,474 Million through June 2020 (last updated August 4, 2020):
Displayed below is this same ACOGNO measure on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -10.8%, last updated August 4, 2020:
source: U.S. Census Bureau, Value of Manufacturers’ New Orders for Consumer Goods Industries [ACOGNO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 11, 2020: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACOGNO
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Industrial Production: Consumer Goods (IPCONGD)
The “Industrial Production: Consumer Goods” measure is another measure exhibiting an outsized contraction followed by a partial rebound. Shown below is a long-term chart of this measure (displayed from 1939), with last value of 98.3162 through June 2020, last updated July 15, 2020:
Displayed below is this same IPCONGD measure on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -6.8%:
source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Industrial Production: Consumer Goods [IPCONGD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 11, 2020: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPCONGD
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Rail Freight Carloads (RAILFRTCARLOADSD11)
“Rail Freight Carloads” continues to show a generally downward progression from a longer-term perspective. Shown below is a chart with data through May 2020 (last value of 804,831), updated July 16, 2020:
source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Rail Freight Carloads [RAILFRTCARLOADSD11], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 11, 2020: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RAILFRTCARLOADSD11
Here is the same measure on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with value -28.6%:
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Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks (HTRUCKSSA)
Sales of “Heavy Weight Trucks” (HTRUCKSSA) is deeply contracting on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis. Shown below is this measure with last value of 32.96 Thousand through July 2020, last updated August 7, 2020:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -29.0%:
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Other Indicators
As mentioned previously, many other indicators discussed on this site indicate economic weakness or economic contraction, if not outright (gravely) problematical economic conditions.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3361.67 as this post is written
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