The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 11, 2020. The headline is “U.S. Recovery Will Cool Further Before Getting Vaccine Boost, WSJ Survey Shows.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The economy’s bounceback will depend on how quickly vaccines are distributed, according to forecasters. More than half of those surveyed said a speedy deployment of vaccines, once approved in the U.S., represents the biggest potential boost for the economy over the next year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 23.63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in November’s survey was 26.63%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 63 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted December 4 – December 8. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -2.74%

full-year 2021:  3.69%

full-year 2022:  2.93%

full-year 2023:  2.38%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 6.71%

December 2021: 5.59%

December 2022: 4.84%

December 2023: 4.40%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .90%

December 2021: 1.28%

December 2022: 1.62%

December 2023: 1.99%

CPI:

December 2020:  1.30%

December 2021:  2.07%

December 2022:  2.15%

December 2023:  2.16%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2020: $44.20

for 12/31/2021: $48.82

for 12/31/2022: $52.16

for 12/31/2023: $53.49

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3668.10 as this post is written