The CFO Survey Third Quarter 2026 – Notable Excerpts

On September 23, 2026 The CFO Survey was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

Corporate financial leaders expressed general optimism about the economic outlook, according to the third quarter CFO Survey. However, rising optimism among large companies was somewhat offset by declining optimism for small and financially constrained firms.

The survey, a collaboration of Duke University's Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta, was fielded from Aug. 17 to Sept. 4. It reflects the views of 517 financial executives.

The CFO Survey contains an Optimism Index chart, with the blue line showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 60.3, as seen below:

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It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” label)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7707.96 as this post is written

CEO Confidence Surveys 3Q 2026 – Notable Excerpts

On September 16, 2026, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2026.   Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Increases for Fourth Consecutive Quarter“:

The overall Index rose by three points from last quarter to 94, its strongest reading in more than four years and well above its historic average of 83. The increase was driven primarily by improved hiring plans, as sales expectations and capital investment plans remained at multi-year highs.

On August 6, 2026, The Conference Board released the Q2 2026 Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 52, down from the previous reading of 47. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:

Ferguson added: “CEOs expected to stay the course on their capital spending plans, with most (61%) indicating no plans to revise capital spending, and only 8% expecting to revise plans lower (unchanged from Q2). Regarding employment, CEOs remained in ‘low-hire, low-fire’ mode, but tilted toward a slight expansion in their workforces in Q3. Plans for wage increases were overall little changed. Hiring qualified people was generally unproblematic in Q3, with a majority of CEOs (61%) expecting either no problem hiring (13%) or overall no problem but some problems in some areas (48%) over the next 12 months.” 

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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7650.50 as this post is written

The CFO Survey Second Quarter 2026 – Notable Excerpts

On June 24, 2026 The CFO Survey was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

Financial decision-makers’ outlooks worsened this quarter amid heightened concern over rising costs and prices, according to the CFO Survey, a collaboration of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. The survey, which included 530 respondents, was fielded from May 18 to June 5, 2026.

Since the last survey, CFOs added 1.1 percentage points to their firm’s unit cost and price growth projections for 2026. Financial executives also lowered their expectations for real GDP growth over the next four quarters to 1.8 percent, from 2.1 percent in the prior survey.

The CFO Survey contains an Optimism Index chart, with the blue line showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 60.6, as seen below:

—

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” label)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7406.87 as this post is written

CEO Confidence Surveys 2Q 2026 – Notable Excerpts

On March 11, 2026, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2026.   Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Increases for Fourth Consecutive Quarter“:

The overall Index increased by two points from last quarter to 91, its highest reading since Q4 2024 and well above its historic average of 83. The gain was driven by stronger CEO expectations for sales and plans for capital investment. Hiring plans remained in neutral territory, with about as many CEOs indicating they intend to decrease employment at their companies as increase it.

On May 28, 2026, The Conference Board released the Q2 2026 Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 47, down from the previous reading of 59. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:

“CEO confidence fell back into negative territory in Q2 2026, reversing the surge in optimism in the first quarter,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “CEOs reported that the economy is materially worse now than it was six months ago and expected economic conditions to weaken further over the next six months. Regarding their own industries, CEO assessments about current conditions and expectations in six months deteriorated since last quarter.”

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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7500.58 as this post is written

The CFO Survey First Quarter 2026 – Notable Excerpts

On March 25, 2026 The CFO Survey was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

The outlook for the U.S. economy improved among financial decision-makers in the first quarter of 2026, according to The CFO Survey, a collaboration of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. Despite concerns about tariff policy and uncertainty, expectations for U.S. GDP growth and business revenue growth over the next year remained solid. The survey, which included 473 respondents, was fielded from Feb. 17 to March 5.

Real GDP over the next four quarters is expected to be 2.1% on a “weighted mean” basis and 2.0% on a “weighted median” basis.

The CFO Survey contains an Optimism Index chart, with the blue line showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 61.7, as seen below:

—

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” label)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6595.61 as this post is written

CEO Confidence Surveys 1Q 2026 – Notable Excerpts

On March 11, 2026, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2026.   Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Rises in Q1 2026“:

The overall Index increased by nine points from last quarter to 89, above its long-term historic average of 83. CEOs reported higher numbers across all three subindices. Notably, the capex and sales subindices are in expansion territory while the employment subindex is neutral.

On February 26, 2026, The Conference Board released the Q1 2026 Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 59, up from the previous reading of 48. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:

“CEO Confidence improved significantly in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting restored optimism among leaders of large firms,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “CEOs’ views of general economic conditions now compared to six months ago turned moderately positive, while CEO’s six-month expectations for the economy flipped from slight pessimism at the end of 2025 to moderate optimism in February 2026. CEOs’ expectations for their own industry improved further, progressing from mild cautiousness to solid confidence. Finally, CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries—a measure not included in calculating the topline CEO Confidence measure—also rose significantly to positive territory.”

_____

Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6775.80 as this post is written

The CFO Survey Fourth Quarter 2025 – Notable Excerpts

On December 17, 2025 The CFO Survey was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

The top concern among U.S. CFOs remains tariffs, though their extent of concern is smaller than it was last quarter. Other top five concerns include demand for products and services, labor quality and skills mismatch, monetary policy, and inflation.

also:

Real GDP growth is expected to increase by 1.9 percent in 2026, nearly the same as last quarter’s 12-month-ahead forecast. The CFO Optimism Index for the overall economy has softened somewhat, falling from 62.9 last quarter to 60.2 this quarter (on a scale from 0 to 100). Own-firm optimism has fallen among large companies.

The CFO Survey contains an Optimism Index chart, with the blue line showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 60.2, as seen below:

—

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” label)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6721.48 as this post is written

CEO Confidence Surveys 4Q 2025 – Notable Excerpts

On December 11, 2025, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2025.   Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Index Improves But Remains Below Historic Average“:

The overall Index posted a four-point increase from last quarter to 80, below its historic average of 83. The slight shift reflects a modest uptick in CEO expectations for sales, with plans for capital investment inching up but essentially remaining flat. Additionally, while hiring plans rose by four points, this marks the third consecutive quarter in which more CEOs have anticipated that their company’s employment will decrease than increase.

On October 16, 2025, The Conference Board released the Q4 2025 Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 48, down from the previous reading of 49. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:

“CEO confidence weakened slightly in the fourth quarter, signaling continued caution among leaders of large firms,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board. “CEOs’ views of general economic conditions now versus six months ago remained slightly negative while CEO’s six-month expectations for the economy turned from neutral to pessimistic. CEOs’ expectations for their own industry were stable, still showing cautious optimism. Meanwhile CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries—a measure not included in calculating the topline CEO Confidence measure—was slightly less negative. Over the next 12-18 months, most CEOs (64%) expected a mild economic slowdown with slightly increased inflation pressure. Only 4% expected a recession. Geopolitical instability and cyber risks continued to dominate top business risks impacting CEOs’ industries, closely followed by AI and innovation. Meanwhile, trade and tariffs risks were pushed down to fifth place by legal and regulatory risks.”

_____

Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6827.41 as this post is written

The CFO Survey Third Quarter 2025 – Notable Excerpts

On September 24, 2025 The CFO Survey was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

The outlook for the U.S. economy among financial decision-makers improved somewhat in the third quarter of 2025, as uncertainty declined. However, concerns about the impact of tariffs on prices and business performance continued to weigh on firms, according to the CFO Survey, a collaboration of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta.

also:

Overall, CFOs projected that tariffs would have a big impact on price growth: On average, price growth would be about 30 percent lower in 2025 and roughly 25 percent lower in 2026 without the addition of tariffs, indicating that firms expect to grapple with tariff-related price increases into 2026. Meanwhile, almost a quarter of firms continued to report that they will decrease capital spending in 2025 due to tariffs.

The CFO Survey contains an Optimism Index chart, with the blue line showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 62.9, as seen below:

—

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” label)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6637.17 as this post is written

CEO Confidence Surveys 3Q 2025 – Notable Excerpts

On September 18, 2025, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2025.   Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Posts Slight Gain, Still Lagging Historically“:

The overall Index edged up slightly by seven points from last quarter to 76, still below its historic average of 83. The modest gain reflects an uptick in CEO plans for capital investment and a marginal increase in their expectations for sales. Additionally, hiring plans remain largely unchanged from last quarter, inching up a couple of points and consistent with a softening labor market.

On August 7, 2025, The Conference Board released the Q3 2025 Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 49, up from the previous reading of 34. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:

“CEO confidence recovered in the third quarter after collapsing in Q2, but fell short of signaling a return to optimism,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board. “The improvement is a continuation of the trend seen after tariff disputes between the US and China became less intense and potentially reflects ongoing progress on trade negotiations. All three components of the Measure improved from deep pessimism to near neutral. CEOs’ views on current economic conditions made the sharpest recovery. Their six-month expectations for the economy as a whole and in their own industries also improved. CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries—a measure not included in calculating the topline Confidence measure—also recovered but remained in pessimistic territory. Fear of recession within the next 12-18 months eased dramatically, to 36% in Q3 from 83% in Q2.”

_____

Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6664.36 as this post is written

The CFO Survey Second Quarter 2025 – Notable Excerpts

On June 25, 2025 The CFO Survey was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

In the survey, which closed on June 6, CFOs revised higher their own-firm unit cost and price growth projections for 2025, while reducing their revenue growth expectations. Financial executives also lowered their expectations for real GDP growth over the next four quarters to 1.4 percent, from 1.9 percent in the prior survey. Moreover, the probability respondents assigned to negative year-ahead economic growth jumped to 23 percent from 15 percent last quarter.

also:

“Perhaps the most striking facet of the outlook for those that report tariffs and trade policy as a pressing concern is that their nominal sales revenue expectations fail to outpace their price growth projections, which means their real revenue growth is expected to contract in 2025,” said Atlanta Fed economist Brent Meyer. 

The CFO Survey contains an Optimism Index chart, with the blue line showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 60.9, as seen below:

—

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” label)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6092.18 as this post is written

CEO Confidence Surveys 2Q 2025 – Notable Excerpts

On June 18, 2025, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2025.   Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Economic Outlook Index Declines Further in Q2“:

Business Roundtable today released its Q2 2025 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months. 

The overall Index dropped by 15 points from last quarter to 69, well below its historic average of 83. The decline is the result of decreases in all three subindices, driven by a downward shift in CEO plans and expectations, most notably in the employment subindex.

On May 29, 2025, The Conference Board released the Q2 2025 Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 34, down from the previous reading of 60. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:

“CEO Confidence collapsed in Q2 2025 after surging in Q1,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board. “All components of the Measure weakened into pessimism territory. CEOs’ views about current economic conditions led the plunge, registering the largest quarter-on-quarter decline in almost 50 years. Expectations for the future also plummeted, with more than half of CEOs now expecting conditions to worsen over the next six months, both for the economy overall and in their own industries. CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries—a measure not included in calculating the topline Confidence measure—also fell sharply in Q2. The vast majority of CEOs (83%) said they expect a recession in the next 12-18 months, nearly matching the percentage who feared recession in late 2022 and early 2023. The US–China trade deal announced on May 12 seems to have eased, but not removed, concerns about the future. CEOs responding before and after May 12 reported similar very negative views about the current state of the economy and their own industries. However, the CEOs who responded after May 12 tended to be somewhat less pessimistic about the future and fewer expected a deep recession.“

_____

Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5967.84 as this post is written