The January 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The January 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 16, 2022. The headline is “Omicron, Inflation Drive Down U.S. Growth Outlook.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

Two excerpts:

The combination of higher inflation, supply-chain constraints and the fast-spreading Omicron variant caused economists to trim their forecast for growth to 3.3% for the current year as a whole, based on the change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, from 3.6% in October. Last year, output rose 5.2%, economists estimate.

also:

On average, survey respondents expect annual inflation to moderate to 5% in June, up substantially from the 3.4% they forecast in October, as measured by the consumer-price index. They expect it to cool further to 3.1% at the end of this year, up from last quarter’s forecast of 2.6%.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 17.74%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 75%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the last survey published] was 15.94%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 7 – January 11. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  5.20%

full-year 2022:  3.30%

full-year 2023:  2.42%

full-year 2024:  2.22%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2022: 3.52%

December 2023: 3.45%

December 2024: 3.53%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2022: 2.20%

December 2023: 2.54%

December 2024: 2.84%

CPI:

December 2022:  3.11%

December 2023:  2.49%

December 2024:  2.33%

Core PCE:

full-year 2021:  4.35%

full-year 2022:  3.00%

full-year 2023:  2.40%

full-year 2024:  2.23%

(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 4662.85 as this post is written