The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The November 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 21, 2022:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of -0.05:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed November 21, 2022:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of .09:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed November 21, 2022:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of November 17, 2022, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through November 12, 2022, with last value -.110595:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the November 18, 2022 Conference Board press release the LEI was 114.9 in October, the CEI was 109.3 in October, and the LAG was 116.3 in October.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI fell for an eighth consecutive month, suggesting the economy is possibly in a recession,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. “The downturn in the LEI reflects consumers’ worsening outlook amid high inflation and rising interest rates, as well as declining prospects for housing construction and manufacturing. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.8 percent year-over-year in 2022, and a recession is likely to start around yearend and last through mid-2023.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) update of November 18, 2022:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3938.84 as this post is written
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