Updates Of Economic Indicators June 2023

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The June 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 22, 2023:

The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.15:

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed June 22, 2023: 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of -.14:

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed June 22, 2023: 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

–

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index

The ADS Index as of June 15, 2023, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through June 10, 2023, with last value -.14898:

–

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):

As per the June 22, 2023 Conference Board press release the LEI was 106.7 in May, the CEI was 110.2 in May, and the LAG was 118.4 in May.

An excerpt from the release:

“The US LEI continued to fall in May as a result of deterioration in the gauges of consumer expectations for business conditions, ISM® New Orders Index, a negative yield spread, and worsening credit conditions,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The US Leading Index has declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity ahead. Rising interest rates paired with persistent inflation will continue to further dampen economic activity. While we revised our Q2 GDP forecast from negative to slight growth, we project that the US economy will contract over the Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 period. The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 4371.35 as this post is written