CEO Confidence Surveys 2Q 2023 – Notable Excerpts

On June 7, 2023, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2023.   Notable excerpts from this June 7, 2023 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Dips Slightly…“:

The overall Index dipped a modest three points from last quarter to 76, remaining below its historic average of 84. Continued moderation in CEO plans and expectations reflects ongoing concerns about inflation, higher interest rates and the broader global economy. 

also:

In their third estimate of 2023 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 1.5% growth for the year.

On May 4, 2023, The Conference Board released the Q2 2023 Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 42, down from the previous reading of 43. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this May 4, 2023 Press Release include:

“After improving sharply to start the year, CEO confidence ticked down slightly in Q2 and remains firmly in negative territory,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist of The Conference Board. “CEOs’ view of current economic conditions continued to be negative, with 55% of CEOs still reporting general economic conditions are worse than they were six months ago. Meanwhile, future expectations deteriorated in Q2: 56% of CEOs expect general economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, while 40% expect worse conditions in their own industry—up from 48% and 33%, respectively, in Q1.” 

also:

Current Conditions

CEOs’ assessment of general economic conditions was slightly better in Q2:

• 17% of CEOs said economic conditions were better compared to six months ago, slightly higher than 16% in Q1.
• 55% said conditions were worse or much worse in both Q1 and Q2.

CEOs were slightly less optimistic about conditions in their own industries to start Q2:

• 19% of CEOs reported that conditions in their industries were better compared to six months ago, down from 23%.
• 44% said conditions in their own industries were worse, slightly higher than 43% in Q1.

Future Conditions

CEOs’ expectations about the short-term economic outlook pulled back in Q2:

• 15% of CEOs said they expected economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 18%.
• 56% expected conditions to worsen, up from 48%.

CEOs’ expectations regarding short-term prospects in their own industries also deteriorated slightly:

• 25% of CEOs expect conditions in their own industry to improve over the next six months—slightly less than 26% last quarter.
• 40% expect conditions to worsen, up notably from 33% in Q1.

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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 4306.40 as this post is written