Philadelphia Fed – 4th Quarter 2023 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 13, 2023.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:

Real GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2023:  2.4%

full-year 2024:  1.7%

full-year 2025:  1.8%

full-year 2026:  2.1%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2023: 3.7%

for 2024: 4.1%

for 2025: 4.2%

for 2026: 4.0%

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Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 31.8%, 40.9%, 40.2%, 36.8%, and 34.7% for each of the quarters from Q4 2023 through Q4 2024, respectively.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2032) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 2.1% to 3.9% range.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 4410.90 as this post is written