The January 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The January 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 14, 2024. The headline is “It Won’t Be a Recession – It Will Just Feel Like One.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Still, economists on average expect the economy to grow just 1% in 2024, about half its normal long-run rate, and a significant slowing from an estimated 2.6% in 2023.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 39%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 80%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the previously published survey] was 48%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 71 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 5 – January 9. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2023:  2.65%

full-year 2024:  1.01%

full-year 2025:  1.99%

full-year 2026:  2.01%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2024: 4.30%

December 2025: 4.13%

December 2026: 3.99%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2024: 3.79%

December 2025: 3.68%

December 2026: 3.65%

CPI:

December 2024:  2.33%

December 2025:  2.25%

December 2026:  2.28%

Core PCE:

full-year 2023:  3.25%

full-year 2024:  2.30%

full-year 2025:  2.12%

full-year 2026:  2.16%

(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 4783.83 as this post is written