The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The July 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 22, 2024:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of .05:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 22, 2024:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of -.01:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 22, 2024:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of July 18, 2024, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through July 13, 2024, with last value .235903:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the July 18, 2024 Conference Board press release the LEI was 101.1 in June, the CEI was 112.6 in June, and the LAG was 119.5 in June.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction was smaller than in the past three months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The decline continued to be fueled by gloomy consumer expectations, weak new orders, negative interest rate spread, and an increased number of initial claims for unemployment. However, due to the smaller month-on-month rate of decline, the LEI’s long-term growth has become less negative, pointing to a slow recovery. Taken together, June’s data suggest that economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead. We currently forecast that cooling consumer spending will push US GDP growth down to around 1 percent (annualized) in Q3 of this year.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) update of July 18, 2024:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 5554.57 as this post is written
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