The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The August 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 22, 2024:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.34:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 22, 2024:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of -.06:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 22, 2024:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of August 22, 2024, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through August 17, 2024, with last value -.347743:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the August 19, 2024 Conference Board press release the LEI was 100.4 in July, the CEI was 112.5 in July, and the LAG was 119.6 in July.
An excerpt from the release:
“The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “In July, weakness was widespread among non-financial components. A sharp deterioration in new orders, persistently weak consumer expectations of business conditions, and softer building permits and hours worked in manufacturing drove the decline, together with the still-negative yield spread. These data continue to suggest headwinds in economic growth going forward. The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to slow over the next few quarters as consumers and businesses continue cutting spending and investments. US real GDP is expected to expand at a pace of 0.6 percent annualized in Q3 2024 and 1 percent annualized in Q4.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) update of August 19, 2024:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 5584.89 as this post is written
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