FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.
For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September 13, 2024:
from page 29:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
from page 30:
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)
The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of September 13, 2024, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46/share; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; the Year 2018 value is $161.93/share; the Year 2019 value is $162.93/share; the Year 2020 value is $139.72/share; the year 2021 value is $208.12/share; the year 2022 value is $218.09/share; and the year 2023 value is $221.36/share:
Year 2024 estimate:
$243.14/share
Year 2025 estimate:
$279.65/share
Year 2026 estimate:
$314.89/share
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)
For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of August 30, 2024:
Year 2024 estimates add to the following:
-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $237.81/share
-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $214.01/share
Year 2025 estimates add to the following:
-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $277.34/share
-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $250.35/share
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2024:Q2). The last value (as of the September 12, 2024 update) is $163.796961 Trillion:
(click on each chart to enlarge image)
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Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 7.1%:
As seen in the above-referenced CalculatedRisk post:
The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $163.8 trillion during the second quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $0.7 trillion and the value of real estate increased $1.8 trillion.
As one can see in the above chart, the first outsized peak was in 2000, and attained after the stock market bull market / stock market bubbles and economic strength. The second outsized peak was in 2007, near the peak of the housing bubble as well as near the stock market peak. A third outsized peak appears to have formed between 2021 and 2022.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, September 10, 2024. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Dips in August.”
The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased by 2.5 points to 91.2.
Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with):
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.5 points in August to 91.2, erasing all of July’s gain. This is the 32nd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose to 92, its highest level since October 2020. Inflation remains the top issue among small business owners, with 24% of owners reporting it as their top small business operating issue, down one point from July.
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession.
While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.
Please note that each of these models is updated regularly, and the results of these – as well as other recession models – can fluctuate significantly.
Currently (last updated September 4, 2024 using data through August 2024) this “Yield Curve” model shows a 61.7891% probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead. For comparison purposes, it showed a 56.2858% probability through July 2024, and a chart going back to 1960 is seen at the “Probability Of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread.” (pdf)
Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., “An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching,” International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)
This model, last updated on September 3, 2024 currently shows a 1.96% probability using data through July 2024.
Here is the FRED chart:
Data Source: Piger, Jeremy Max and Chauvet, Marcelle, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [RECPROUSM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, accessed September 8, 2024: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RECPROUSM156N
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The two models featured above can be compared against measures seen in recent posts. For instance, as seen in the July 13, 2024 post titled “The July 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey“ economists surveyed averaged a 28% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.
Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written. While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.
Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra long-term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets – will occur. [note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has paramount significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” label]
As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through September 6, 2024 with a last price of 5408.42), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working.
Below is an updated chart regarding this statistic. The current figure, last updated on September 6, 2024 depicting data through August 2024, is 100.092 Million people (Not Seasonally Adjusted):
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Not in Labor Force [LNU05000000], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 7, 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU05000000
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings.
While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic trends.
The first chart depicts Average Hourly Earnings Of All Employees: Total Private (FRED series CES0500000003)(current value = $35.21):
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 9-6-24)
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees: Total Private [CES0500000003] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed September 6, 2024: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES0500000003
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This next chart depicts this same measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis. While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 9-6-24)
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There are slightly different measures available from a longer-term perspective. Pictured below is another measure, the Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees – Total Private (FRED series AHETPI)(current value = $30.27):
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 9-6-24)
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Total Private [AHETPI] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed September 6, 2024: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI
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Pictured below is this AHETPI measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis. While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 9-6-24)
I will continue to actively monitor these trends, especially given the post-2009 dynamics.
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I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”
Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.
For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site. The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:
Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.
Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 4.2% unemployment rate:
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed September 6, 2024: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE
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Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 7.9% unemployment rate:
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed September 6, 2024: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.
However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.
The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site. Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 9.4 weeks):
(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 9-6-24)
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed September 6, 2024: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED
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Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 1.533 million):
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed September 6, 2024: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV
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Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 158.779 million):
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed September 6, 2024: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS
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Our unemployment problem is severe. The underlying dynamics of the current – and especially future – unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome. These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.
My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” label. This commentary includes the page titled “U.S. Unemployment Trends,” which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
