On September 18, 2024, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2024. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Q3 Economic Index Ticks Down as CEOs Temper Expectations“:
Business Roundtable today released its Q3 2024 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months.
The overall Index dipped 5 points from last quarter to 79 and is below its historic average of 83 for the first time in 2024. The decrease is the result of a modest reduction in CEO plans for employment and an easing in expectations for sales. Plans for capital investment have marginally increased from last quarter.
also:
In their fourth estimate of 2024 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.3% growth for the year, remaining the same as in the second quarter.
On August 8, 2024, The Conference Board released the Q3 2024 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 52, down from the previous reading of 54. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:
“CEOs remained cautiously optimistic about the future but their views about the current economic situation weakened in Q3,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Chair Emeritus of The Conference Board. “Negative views about current economic conditions outweighed positive views of the economy, with more CEOs saying that conditions have worsened compared to six months ago than saying they improved. Their views about current conditions in their own industries also deteriorated. CEOs’ views about the economy going forward were little changed, but still positive on net. The balance of opinions on future conditions in own industries was also stable and moderately positive. Regarding top risks to their own industries, CEOs continue to rank cyber risks first, followed by geopolitical instability, and legal and regulatory uncertainty.”
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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 5723.11 as this post is written
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