The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The December 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 23, 2024:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.11:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed December 23, 2024:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of -.31:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed December 23, 2024:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of December 20, 2024, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through December 14, 2024, with last value -.122903:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the December 19, 2024 Conference Board press release the LEI was 99.7 in November, the CEI was 113.0 in November, and the LAG was 118.8 in November.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI rose in November for the first time since February 2022,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “A rebound in building permits, continued support from equities, improvement in average hours worked in manufacturing, and fewer initial unemployment claims boosted the LEI in November. It’s worth noting that gains in building permits were not widespread geographically or by building type; they were concentrated mainly to the Northeast and Midwest, and on buildings with 5+ units rather than single-family dwellings. Overall, the rise in LEI is a positive sign for future economic activity in the US. The Conference Board currently forecasts US GDP to expand by 2.7% in 2024, but growth to slow to 2.0% in 2025.“
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) update of December 19, 2024:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 5955.7 as this post is written
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