On December 10, 2024, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2024. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Q4 Economic Index Shifts Higher on CEO Expectations and Plans for 2025“:
The overall Index rose 12 points from last quarter to 91, the highest level in over two years and well above its historic average of 83. The increase is the result of CEOs reporting higher numbers across all three subindices.
“As we head into the new year, the Survey results reflect CEOs’ optimism about the U.S. economy in the coming months,” said Business Roundtable Chair Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Cisco. “With Washington poised to consider measures that can protect and strengthen tax reform, enable a sensible regulatory environment, and drive investment and job creation, business leaders are energized by the opportunity to engage the incoming Administration and Congress on policies that can further fuel our economy.”
also:
In their first estimate of 2025 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.6% growth for the year.
On October 24, 2024, The Conference Board released the Q4 2024 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 51, down from the previous reading of 52. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:
“CEO optimism continued to fade in Q4, as leaders of large firms expressed lower confidence in the outlook for their own industries,” said Dana M. Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist. “Views about the economy overall—both now and six months hence—were little changed from Q3. However, CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries declined. (This information is not included in calculating the Confidence measure). Moreover, the balance of expectations regarding conditions in their own industries six months from now deteriorated substantially in Q4 compared to last quarter. Most CEOs indicated no revisions to their capital spending plans over the next 12 months, but there was a notable increase in the share of those expecting to roll back investment plans by more than 10%.”
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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 6066.83 as this post is written
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