The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The February 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 24, 2025:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.03:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 24, 2025:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of .03:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 24, 2025:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of February 20, 2025, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through February 15, 2025, with last value .157009:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the February 20, 2025 Conference Board press release the LEI was 101.5 in January, the CEI was 114.3 in January, and the LAG was 119.3 in January.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI declined in January, reversing most of the gains from the previous two months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessments of future business conditions turned more pessimistic in January, which—alongside fewer weekly hours worked in manufacturing—drove the monthly decline. However, manufacturing orders have almost stabilized after weighing heavily on the Index since 2022, and the yield spread contributed positively for the first time since November 2022. Overall, just four of the LEI’s 10 components were negative in January. In addition, the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates continued to trend upward, signaling milder obstacles to US economic activity ahead. We currently forecast that real GDP for the US will expand by 2.3% in 2025, with stronger growth in the first half of the year.”
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 6011.54 as this post is written
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