Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – July 2025

Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate.

The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at elevated levels.

As seen in the April 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey the consensus (average estimate) among various economists is for .78% GDP in 2025, 1.83% GDP in 2026, and 2.12% GDP in 2027.

Charts Indicating U.S. Economic Weakness

Below is a small sampling of charts that depict weak growth or contraction, and a brief comment for each:

Job Openings (JTSJOL)

Job openings (Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL]), although still at a high level, have recently declined significantly. This “Job Openings” measure had a value of 7,769 (Thousands) through May 2025 as of the July 1, 2025 update, as shown below:

Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -1.7%:

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 8, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL

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Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private (AWHAETP)

Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private continues a significant downward progression. This “Average Weekly Hours” measure had a value of 34.2 (Hours) through June 2025 as of the July 3, 2025 update:

Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -.3%:

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private [AWHAETP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 8, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP

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All Employees, Temporary Help Services (TEMPHELPS)

I have written extensively about many facets of employment and unemployment, as the current and future unemployment issue is of tremendous importance yet is in many ways misunderstood.

One theory regarding employment is that hiring cycles typically begin with an uptake in temporary employment. Conversely, due to various factors a reduction in temporary employees can be an (early) indicator of lessening labor demand.

Shown below is this TEMPHELPS measure with last value of 2,535.9 (Thousands) through June 2025, last updated July 3, 2025:

Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -3.2%:

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Temporary Help Services [TEMPHELPS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 8, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEMPHELPS

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Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks (HTRUCKSSA)

Sales of “Heavy Weight Trucks” (HTRUCKSSA) has recently been faltering. Shown below is this measure with last value of 36.270 Thousand through June 2025, last updated July 7, 2025:

Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -1.4%:

source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks [HTRUCKSSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 8, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HTRUCKSSA

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Other Indicators

As mentioned previously, many other indicators discussed on this site indicate weak economic growth or economic contraction, if not outright (gravely) problematical economic conditions.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6225.52 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – July 8, 2025 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra long-term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets – will occur. [note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has paramount significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” label]

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through July 7, 2025 with a last price of 6229.98), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6228.82 as this post is written

Recession Probability Models – July 2025

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession.

While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.

Please note that each of these models is updated regularly, and the results of these – as well as other recession models – can fluctuate significantly.

The first is the “Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator” from the New York Federal Reserve.  I wrote a post concerning this measure on March 1, 2010, titled “The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator.”

Currently (last updated July 3, 2025 using data through June 2025) this “Yield Curve” model shows a 28.7153% probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.  For comparison purposes, it showed a 28.301% probability through May 2025, and a chart going back to 1960 is seen at the “Probability Of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread.” (pdf)

The second model is from Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger.  This model is described on the St. Louis Federal Reserve site (FRED) as follows:

Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., “An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching,” International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)

Additional details and explanations can be seen on the “U.S. Recession Probabilities” page.

This model, last updated on July 1, 2025 currently shows a 1.64% probability using data through May 2025.

Here is the FRED chart:

Data Source:  Piger, Jeremy Max and Chauvet, Marcelle, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [RECPROUSM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, accessed July 5, 2025:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RECPROUSM156N

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The two models featured above can be compared against measures seen in recent posts.  For instance, as seen in the April 13, 2025 post titled “The April 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey“ economists surveyed averaged a 45% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6279.35 as this post is written

Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings.

Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings.

While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic trends.

The first chart depicts Average Hourly Earnings Of All Employees: Total Private (FRED series CES0500000003)(current value = $36.30):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 7-3-25)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees:  Total Private [CES0500000003] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed July 3, 2025: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES0500000003

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This next chart depicts this same measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis.   While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 7-3-25)

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There are slightly different measures available from a longer-term perspective. Pictured below is another measure, the Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees – Total Private (FRED series AHETPI)(current value = $31.24):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 7-3-25)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees:  Total Private [AHETPI] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics;  accessed July 3, 2025: 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI

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Pictured below is this AHETPI measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis.   While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 7-3-25)

I will continue to actively monitor these trends, especially given the post-2009 dynamics.

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I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6279.35 as this post is written

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Charts As Of July 3, 2025

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”

Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.

For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.

Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 4.1% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed July 3, 2025: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

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Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 7.7% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons  [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed July 3, 2025:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6271.01 as this post is written

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – July 2025

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.

The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 10.1 weeks):

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 7-3-25)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed July 3, 2025:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED

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Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 1.647 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed July 3, 2025: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV

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Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 159.724 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed July 3, 2025:  https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

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Our unemployment problem is severe.  The underlying dynamics of the current – and especially future – unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome.  These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.

My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” label.  This commentary includes the page titled “U.S. Unemployment Trends,” which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6252.36 as this post is written

VIX Charts Since The Year 2000 – July 2, 2025 Update

For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through the July 1, 2025 close, which had a value of 16.83.

Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

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Here is the VIX Monthly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-month moving average, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6198.01 as this post is written

S&P500 Charts Since 2009 And 1980 – July 2, 2025 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes.

Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price.

The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, AMZN, SBUX, CAT) individual stocks, since 2005. There is a blue vertical line that is very close to the March 6, 2009 low. As one can see, both the S&P500 performance, as well as many stocks including the five shown, have performed strongly since the March 6, 2009 low:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

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This next chart shows, on a monthly LOG basis, the S&P500 since 1980.  I find this chart notable as it provides an interesting long-term perspective on the S&P500′s performance.  The 20, 50, and 200-month moving averages are shown in blue, red, and green lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6198.01 as this post is written