The January 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The January 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 18, 2026. The headline is “Economists Shrug Off Trumponomics, Boost 2026 Growth Outlook Back Above 2%.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

The one part of the economy that fared poorly last year was the job market. Monthly job growth averaged 49,000, down from 168,000 in 2024, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in December 2025 from 4.1% a year earlier. The culprit: Cost-conscious businesses turned hesitant about adding new workers due to tariff uncertainties and used artificial intelligence to drive productivity. A crackdown on immigration and retirements dented worker supply. 

Looking ahead, economists think the worst has passed for jobs; they expect the unemployment rate, which ended 2025 at 4.4%, to hover around 4.5% in 2026. They see monthly job growth over the next four quarters at 65,000, up from 49,000 in the prior survey. That was due in part to the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts late last year, which should support hiring in industries like real estate while unlocking more home buying. 

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 27%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 90%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the previously published survey] was 33%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 74 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 9 – January 15. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2025:  2.35%

full-year 2026:  2.17%

full-year 2027:  2.09%

full-year 2028:  2.13%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2026: 4.45%

December 2027: 4.30%

December 2028: 4.27%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2026: 4.18%

December 2027: 4.14%

December 2028: 4.06%

CPI:

December 2026:  2.63%

December 2027:  2.39%

December 2028:  2.33%

Core PCE:

full-year 2025:  2.80%

full-year 2026:  2.64%

full-year 2027:  2.31%

full-year 2028:  2.22%

(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6940.01 as this post is written