The April 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The April 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 12, 2026. The headline is “Inflation, Growth and Jobs All Look Worse With the War.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Recent months have been marked by slower growth, stubborn inflation and a weaker job market. Economists worry the war in Iran could exacerbate all three.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 33%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 85%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey [the previously published survey] was 27%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 68 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted April 3 – April 9. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2026:  1.99%

full-year 2027:  2.16%

full-year 2028:  2.18%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2026: 4.49%

December 2027: 4.35%

December 2028: 4.25%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2026: 4.22%

December 2027: 4.16%

December 2028: 4.12%

CPI:

December 2026:  3.19%

December 2027:  2.29%

December 2028:  2.30%

Core PCE:

full-year 2026:  2.93%

full-year 2027:  2.35%

full-year 2028:  2.19%

(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6816.89 as this post is written