Deflation Probabilities – March 5, 2020 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.”

As stated on the site:

Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described in a technical appendix, this weekly report provides two measures of the probability of consumer price index (CPI) deflation through 2024.

A chart shows the trends of the probabilities.  As one can see in the chart, the readings are volatile.

As for the current weekly reading, the March 5, 2020 update states the following:

The 2019–24 deflation probability was 0 percent on March 4, 2020, where it has remained since December 16, 2019. The 2018–23 deflation probability was also 0 percent on March 4, 2020, where it has remained since July 8, 2019. These deflation probabilities, measuring the likelihoods of net declines in the Consumer Price Index over the five-year periods starting in early 2018 and early 2019, are estimated from prices of the five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) issued in April 2018 and April 2019 and the 10-year TIPS issued in July 2013 and July 2014.

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I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3023.94 as this post is written

10-Year Treasury Yields – Two Long-Term Charts As Of March 4, 2020

I have written extensively about the importance of U.S. interest rate levels.  Rising interest rates have substantial ramifications for many aspects of the current-day economy.  My commentaries with regard to interest rates and the bond bubble are largely found under the “bond bubble” label.   From an intervention perspective commentary is found under the “Intervention” label.

As reference, below is a long-term chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield since 1980, depicted on a monthly basis, LOG scale:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

Here is a long-term chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield since 2008, depicted on a daily basis, LOG scale:

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3130.12 as this post is written

Four Charts Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility – March 4, 2020

This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility.

While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent volatility in the stock market.

Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility is highly significant.

First, a one-year daily depiction of the S&P500 through Tuesday’s (March 3, 2020) close, with a 50-day moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com)

Second, a three-month daily depiction of the S&P500 through Tuesday’s (March 3, 2020) close, with a 50-day moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

Third, a three-month depiction of the S&P500 in 60-minute intervals through Tuesday’s (March 3, 2020) close, with a 50-hour moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

Fourth, a one-month depiction of the S&P500 in 10-minute intervals through Tuesday’s (March 3, 2020) close, with a 50-period moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3003.37 as this post is written

VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – March 4, 2020 Update

For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Tuesday’s (March 3, 2020) close, which had a closing value of 36.82.

Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

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Here is the VIX Monthly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-month moving average, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3003.37 as this post is written

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – March 3, 2020 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes.

Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price.

The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, AMZN, SBUX, CAT) individual stocks, since 2005.  There is a blue vertical line that is very close to the March 6, 2009 low.  As one can see, both the S&P500 performance, as well as many stocks including the five shown, have performed strongly since the March 6, 2009 low:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

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This next chart shows, on a monthly LOG basis, the S&P500 since 1980.  I find this chart notable as it provides an interesting long-term perspective on the S&P500′s performance.  The 20, 50, and 200-month moving averages are shown in blue, red, and green lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3058.75 as this post is written

U.S. Stock Market Indices – Ultra Long-Term Price Charts

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators.

As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale.

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, from 1900 – February 28, 2020:

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The Dow Jones Transportation Average, from 1900 – February 28, 2020:

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The S&P500, from 1925 – February 28, 2020:

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The Nasdaq Composite, from 1978 – February 28, 2020:

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3092.52 as this post is written

U.S. Dollar Decline – March 2, 2020 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial Dollar decline can’t, in my opinion, be overstated.

The following three charts illustrate various technical analysis aspects of the U.S. Dollar, as depicted by the U.S. Dollar Index.

First, a look at the monthly U.S. Dollar from 1983.  This clearly shows a long-term weakness, with the blue line showing technical support until 2007, and the red line representing a (past) trendline:

(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; annotations by the author)

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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Next, another chart, this one focused on the daily U.S. Dollar since 2000 on a LOG scale.  The red line represents a (past) trendline.  The gray dotted line is the 200-day M.A. (moving average):

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Lastly, a chart of the Dollar on a weekly LOG scale.  There are two clearly marked past channels, with possible technical support depicted by the dashed light blue line:

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I will continue providing updates on this U.S. Dollar situation regularly as it deserves very close monitoring…

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2954.22 as this post is written

Future Consequences Arising From The U.S. Economic Situation

Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators continue to indicate U.S. economic growth and financial system stability for the foreseeable future.

However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is in many ways incorrect.  There are many exceedingly problematical financial conditions that continue to exist, some of which have grown in severity.  As well, numerous economic dynamics continue to be worrisome and many economic indicators portray facets of weak growth or outright decline.

Of paramount importance is the resulting level of risk and the future economic implications.

From an “all things considered” standpoint, I continue to believe the overall level of risk is at a fantastic level, one that is far greater than that experienced at any time in the history of the United States.

Cumulatively, these highly problematical conditions will lead to future upheaval.  The extent of the resolution of these problematical conditions will determine the ongoing viability of the financial system and economy as well as the resultant quality of living.

As I have previously written in “The U.S. Economic Situation” updates:

My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well.  Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact.  This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2954.22 as this post is written