The August 2011 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The August Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published August 12, 2011.  The headline is “Feeble Numbers Stir Recession Fears."

I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts:

The 46 economists in the survey—not all of whom answer every question—put the odds that the U.S. is already in another recession at 13%, while they peg the chances of going that way in the next year at 29%—up from 17% only a month ago.

Also, a question in the detail (spreadsheet) asked "Please grade the economic leadership in the following regions" - which generated universally poor marks from respondents.

Another question in the detail asked "If you were to go short on a currency over the next three years what would it be?"  The responses were the following:

Euro:  40%
U.S. Dollar:  17%
Yen:  11%
Swiss Franc:  11%
Yuan:  9%
Other:  11%

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


GDP:
full-year 2011 : 1.6%
full-year 2012:  2.5%


Unemployment Rate:
December 2011: 9.0%
December 2012: 8.4%


10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2011: 2.83%
December 2012: 3.54%


CPI:
December 2011:  2.9%
December 2012:  2.3%


Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2011: $86.18
for 12/31/2012: $88.89

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation


SPX at 1172.64 as this post is written