Tuesday, May 15, 2012

The May 2012 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 14, 2012.  The headline is “Economists Forecast Subdued Growth in 2012.”

I found the following excerpts to be notable:
The economy is expected to add about 185,000 jobs a month over the next year. That rate of growth hasn't been seen since 2006, but it remains too slow to bring down the unemployment rate quickly.
Meanwhile, the prospect of another recession over the next 12 months remains remote. On average, economists put just a 16% chance of another downturn.
But contagion from Europe was the biggest potential pitfall cited by more than half the respondents.
Also, as seen in the Q&A section (in the spreadsheet), the percentage of  economists who see the Federal Reserve starting "another round of large-scale bond buying in 2012" is at 24%.  Also, as to whether the risk to their 2012 economic forecasts are to the upside or downside, 70% said to the downside.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

full-year 2012:  2.5%
full-year 2013:  2.6%
full-year 2014:  3.0%

Unemployment Rate:
December 2012: 7.9%
December 2013: 7.4%
December 2014:  6.8%

10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2012: 2.47%
December 2013: 3.10%
December 2014:  3.67%

December 2012:  2.3%
December 2013:  2.3%
December 2014:  2.6%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2012: $100.76

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1338.35 as this post is written

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