The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 14, 2012. The headline is “Economists Forecast Subdued Growth in 2012.”
I found the following excerpts to be notable:
The economy is expected to add about 185,000 jobs a month over the next year. That rate of growth hasn't been seen since 2006, but it remains too slow to bring down the unemployment rate quickly.
also:
Meanwhile, the prospect of another recession over the next 12 months remains remote. On average, economists put just a 16% chance of another downturn.
also:
But contagion from Europe was the biggest potential pitfall cited by more than half the respondents.
Also, as seen in the Q&A section (in the spreadsheet), the percentage of economists who see the Federal Reserve starting "another round of large-scale bond buying in 2012" is at 24%. Also, as to whether the risk to their 2012 economic forecasts are to the upside or downside, 70% said to the downside.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2012: 2.5%
full-year 2013: 2.6%
full-year 2014: 3.0%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2012: 7.9%
December 2013: 7.4%
December 2014: 6.8%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2012: 2.47%
December 2013: 3.10%
December 2014: 3.67%
CPI:
December 2012: 2.3%
December 2013: 2.3%
December 2014: 2.6%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2012: $100.76
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1338.35 as this post is written
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