Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Philadelphia Fed – 3rd Quarter 2012 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed Third Quarter 2012 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 10.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations:

GDP: (annual average level)
full-year 2012 : 2.2%
full-year 2013 : 2.1%
full-year 2014 : 2.7%
full-year 2015:  3.1%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)
for 2012: 8.2%
for 2013: 7.9%
for 2014: 7.3%
for 2015: 7.0%


As for “the chance of a contraction in real GDP in any of the next four quarters,” estimates range from 13.8-21.2% for each of the quarters through Q3 2013.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present through the year 2021) with the expected inflation of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 1.5-2.48% range.

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1404.11 as this post is written

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