Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of September 26, 2012

Doug Short had a blog post of September 25 ("September Consumer Confidence Surprises to the Upside") in which he presents the Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below:

(click on charts to enlarge images)



There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find highly noteworthy.  Of course, the continuing subdued absolute levels of these two surveys is disconcerting.

Also, I find the “behavior” of these readings to be quite disparate as compared to the other post-recession periods, as shown in the charts between the gray shaded areas (the gray areas denote recessions as defined by the NBER.)

While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings to be very problematical, especially in light of a variety of other highly disconcerting measures highlighted throughout this blog.

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1434.69 as this post is written

No comments:

Post a Comment