The July 2013 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 19, 2013.  The headline is “Yellen Seen as Front-Runner for Top Fed Post.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.

As to the question (seen in the spreadsheet detail) “Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months,” the average was 13%.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2013:  2.1%

full-year 2014:  2.8%

full-year 2015:  3.0%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2013: 7.3%

December 2014: 6.7%

December 2015: 6.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2013: 2.70%

December 2014: 3.30%

December 2015: 3.82%

CPI:

December 2013:  1.7%

December 2014:  2.1%

December 2015:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2013: $98.61

for 12/31/2014: $99.13

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1688.16 as this post is written