Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The December 2013 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of December 23, 2013:
As of 12/20/13 (incorporating data through 12/13/13) the WLI was at 130.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.1%.
Here is the latest chart, depicting 12-31-07 through 12-14-13:
As per the December 19 press release, the LEI was at 98.3 and the CEI was at 107.2 in November.
An excerpt from the December 19 release:
“The LEI continues on a broad-based upward trend, suggesting gradually strengthening economic conditions through early 2014,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Improving labor markets and new orders in manufacturing, combined with strong financial indicators, drove November’s gain. However, consumers’ outlook for the economy and the drop in housing permits continue to pose risks in 2014.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of December 19 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Fifth Month of Growth“ :
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1827.41 as this post is written