The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 12, 2015. The headline is “Economists Overwhelmingly Expect Fed To Raise Interest Rates in December.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
The Fed has held its benchmark federal-funds rate near zero since December 2008 to bolster the U.S. economy through a financial crisis, deep recession and slow recovery. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and other top officials have long said they expected to begin raising rates sometime in 2015 and just a few months ago, a September rate increase seemed likely. But doubts mounted amid a rise in the dollar’s value and turbulence in financial markets and the Fed decided in mid-September to delay raising rates, though several officials described it as a close call.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 13.56%; the average response in October’s survey was 15.34%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2015: 2.2%
full-year 2016: 2.6%
full-year 2017: 2.5%
December 2015: 5.0%
December 2016: 4.7%
December 2017: 4.6%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.38%
December 2016: 2.91%
December 2017: 3.50%
December 2015: .8%
December 2016: 2.1%
December 2017: 2.4%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2015: $46.53
for 12/31/2016: $54.84
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2057.42 as post is written