Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The November 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 23, 2015:
As of November 20, 2015 (incorporating data through November 13, 2015) the WLI was at 131.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.6%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of November 20, 2015, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: ‘Multiple Jobholders Boost 'Full-Time' Employment'":
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through November 14, 2015:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the November 19, 2015 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Sharply in October,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.1, the CEI was at 113.0, and the LAG was 119.3 in October.
An excerpt from the November 19 release:
“The U.S. LEI rose sharply in October, with the yield spread, stock prices, and building permits driving the increase,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Despite lackluster third quarter growth, the economic outlook now appears to be improving. While the U.S. LEI’s six-month growth rate has moderated, the U.S. economy remains on track for continued expansion heading into 2016.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of November 19 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Rose in October“:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2094.72 as this post is written