Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The June 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 23, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.51; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.36):
As of June 17, 2016 (incorporating data through June 10, 2016) the WLI was at 136.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 7.1%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of June 17, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Down Slightly, But Growth Index Increases”:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through June 11, 2016:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the June 23, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.7, the CEI was at 113.5, and the LAG was 121.9 in May.
An excerpt from the June 23 release:
“The US LEI declined in May, primarily due to a sharp increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance. The growth rate of the LEI has moderated over the past year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “While the LEI suggests the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace in the near term, volatility in financial markets and a moderating outlook in labor markets could pose downside risks to growth.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of June 23 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Decrease in May“:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2101.54 as this post is written