Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The February 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 23, 2017: (current reading of CFNAI is -.05; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.03):
As of February 17, 2017 (incorporating data through February 10, 2017) the WLI was at 144.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 11.1%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of February 17, 2017:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through February 18, 2017:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the February 17, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in January” (pdf) the LEI was at 125.5, the CEI was at 114.4, and the LAG was 123.7 in January.
An excerpt from the release:
“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased sharply again in January, pointing to a positive economic outlook in the first half of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The January gain was broad based among the leading indicators. If this trend continues, the U.S. economy may even accelerate in the near term.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of February 17, 2017:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2361.38 as this post is written