America's Current & Future Economic Situation - By Ted Kavadas
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
October 2017 IMF Report – Probabilities Of Recession And Deflation
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the October 2017 “World Economic Outlook.” The subtitle is ”Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges.”
One area of the report is Figure 1.19 on page 26. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability of Deflation – I do find them to be notable, especially as one can compare these estimates across various global economies.
As one can see, the report states that the U.S. is estimated to have a roughly 23% probability of recession and roughly a 2% probability of deflation for the periods indicated.
I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation