The June 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The June 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 7, 2018.  The headline is “Most Forecasters See Modest Growth Boost From Bank-Regulation Rollback.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Among dozens of forecasters surveyed in recent days by The Wall Street Journal, 61% said they expected U.S. growth in the medium term would be modestly stronger thanks to the bill signed last month by President Donald Trump. Some 33% said they expected no effect on economic growth from the rules-rollback. Few expected a decline or significant increase.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.83%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 33%.  For reference, the average response in May’s survey was 14.59%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 56 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted June 1 – June 5, 2018.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  2.9%

full-year 2019:  2.4%

full-year 2020:  1.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.6%

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.9%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.23%

December 2019: 3.59%

December 2020: 3.54%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.5%

December 2019:  2.3%

December 2020:  2.2%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2018: $67.16

for 12/31/2019: $66.62

for 12/31/2020: $63.05

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2769.09 as this post is written