Thursday, March 14, 2019

The March 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The March 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 14, 2019.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Cut Forecasts For Jobs and Economic Growth in Early 2019.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
An excerpt:
A large majority of economists, 84.2%, said they saw a greater risk that the economy would grow more slowly than that it would grow more quickly over the next 12 months. When asked about the biggest downside risk to their forecasts, nearly half of respondents, 46.8%, mentioned trade policy or China.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 24.51%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in February’s survey was 24.53%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 66 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted March 8 – March 12, 2019.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2018:  3.0%
full-year 2019:  2.1%
full-year 2020:  1.7%
full-year 2021:  1.8%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2019: 3.7%
December 2020: 3.9%
December 2021: 4.2%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2019: 2.93%
December 2020: 2.94%
December 2021: 2.99%
December 2019:  2.10%
December 2020:  2.10%
December 2021:  2.10%
Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2019: $58.47
for 12/31/2020: $58.14
for 12/31/2021: $57.35
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2807.82 as this post is written

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