Thursday, April 11, 2019

The April 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The April 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 11, 2019.  The headline is “Raising Minimum Wage Would Cost Jobs, Say Economists in WSJ Survey.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
An excerpt:
Nearly half of respondents expected the next recession to start in 2020, while 40% predicted the next downturn will start in 2021.
But the number of economists who say the economy could surprise them for the better nearly doubled to more than 22% in April from the prior month.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 25.80%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in March’s survey was 24.51%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 63 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted April 5 – April 9, 2019.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2018:  3.0%
full-year 2019:  2.1%
full-year 2020:  1.8%
full-year 2021:  1.8%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2019: 3.7%
December 2020: 3.8%
December 2021: 4.1%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2019: 2.80%
December 2020: 2.83%
December 2021: 2.90%
December 2019:  2.10%
December 2020:  2.10%
December 2021:  2.10%
Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2019: $61.94
for 12/31/2020: $60.48
for 12/31/2021: $60.73
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2884.03 as this post is written

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