The June 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The June 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 13, 2019.  The headline is “Trump Tariffs Are Short-Term Pain Without Long-Term Gain, Economists Say.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Looking at the economy as a whole, 74% of economists said they saw the risks for growth tilted to the downside—up from 58% in May and 47% this time a year ago.

Nearly half of economists in the latest survey, 48.8%, expect the next recession in 2020. That was up from just over a third in the May survey. Some 36.6% predict the next downturn will start in 2021, down from just over half in last month’s survey. Just under 5% expect it will begin this year, up from just over 2% in May.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 30.07%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in May’s survey was 22.79%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 59 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted June 7 – June 11, 2019.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.2%

full-year 2020:  1.6%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.9%

December 2021: 4.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 2.34%

December 2020: 2.48%

December 2021: 2.60%

CPI:

December 2019:  2.08%

December 2020:  2.02%

December 2021:  2.12%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2019: $56.76

for 12/31/2020: $58.32

for 12/31/2021: $59.44

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2886.72 as this post is written