Philadelphia Fed – 4th Quarter 2019 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2019 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 15, 2019.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:

Real GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2019:  2.3%

full-year 2020:  1.8%

full-year 2021:  2.0%

full-year 2022:  2.0%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2019: 3.7%

for 2020: 3.7%

for 2021: 3.7%

for 2022: 3.9%

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Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 12.8%, 18.1%, 20.8%, 22.6%, and 25.1% for each of the quarters from Q4 2019 through Q4 2020, respectively.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2028) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 1.5% to 2.3% range.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3115.24 as this post is written