I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
The U.S. economy will be in recovery by the third quarter of this year, economists said in a survey that also concluded the labor market will fare better than previously expected following the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.
A monthly Wall Street Journal survey found that more than two-thirds of economists, 68.4%, expect the economic recovery to start in the third quarter. Just over a fifth, 22.8%, said it already began in the current, second quarter. The U.S. entered a recession in February, the National Bureau of Economic Research determined this week.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 73.54%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%. For reference, the average response in May’s survey was 94.6%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted June 5 – June 9, 2020.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2020: -5.87%
full-year 2021: 4.70%
full-year 2022: 3.09%
December 2020: 9.64%
December 2021: 6.95%
December 2022: 5.69%
December 2023: 4.97%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2020: .97%
December 2021: 1.38%
December 2022: 1.80%
December 2020: .48%
December 2021: 1.91%
December 2022: 2.07%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2020: $40.08
for 12/31/2021: $47.26
for 12/31/2022: $52.47
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation