The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The November 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 23, 2020:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of .83:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November 23, 2020;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of .75:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November 23, 2020;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of November 20, 2020 (incorporating data through November 13, 2020) the WLI was at 143.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at 8.6%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Advisor Perspectives’ ECRI update post of November 20, 2020:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index, from 11-1-2019 through 11-14-20:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the November 19, 2020 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in October” the LEI was at 108.2, the CEI was at 102.7, and the LAG was 107.1 in October.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI rose again in October, with widespread improvements despite weakness from housing permits and consumers’ outlook on economic conditions. However, the leading index has been decelerating in recent months, which suggests growth will moderate significantly in the final months of 2020, slowing down from the unusually rapid pace in Q3,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Furthermore, downside risks to growth from a second wave of COVID-19 and high unemployment persist. While The Conference Board projects the US economy will expand in Q4, the pace of growth is unlikely to exceed 2.2 percent (annual rate).”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators update of November 19, 2020:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3565.35 as this post is written
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