The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 12, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economic Recovery Seen Staying on Track After Election.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Forecasters see an unemployment rate of 6.7% at the end of this year, down from 7.8% in last month’s survey. They now expect gross domestic product to contract 2.7% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019, an improvement from the 3.6% contraction they predicted last month. They forecast expansions of 3.6% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022, only slightly slower than in the prior month’s survey.

also:

Nearly 90% expect uncertainty to decrease for financial markets thanks to clarity about the election outcome and news of a potential coronavirus vaccine. Over 80% of respondents expect uncertainty to decrease for the economy in coming months.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 26.63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey was 31.68%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 65 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted November 6 – November 10. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -2.66%

full-year 2021:  3.58%

full-year 2022:  2.88%

full-year 2023:  2.43%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 6.74%

December 2021: 5.59%

December 2022: 4.80%

December 2023: 4.37%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .88%

December 2021: 1.22%

December 2022: 1.63%

December 2023: 1.97%

CPI:

December 2020:  1.30%

December 2021:  2.03%

December 2022:  2.16%

December 2023:  2.20%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2020: $40.95

for 12/31/2021: $46.67

for 12/31/2022: $50.31

for 12/31/2023: $53.18

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3532.55 as this post is written