The March 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The March 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 10, 2021. The headline is “Latest Stimulus Package Could Jolt U.S. Growth, Revive Inflation in 2021.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The nearly $1.9 trillion relief package heading for House passage Wednesday is projected to help propel the U.S. economy to its fastest annual growth in nearly four decades, reduce poverty and revive inflation.

The legislation—following trillions of dollars in federal aid last year and arriving amid rising Covid-19 vaccination rates—prompted economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in recent days to boost their average forecast for 2021 economic growth to 5.95%, measured from the fourth quarter of last year to the same period this year. That was up from their 4.87% projection last month and would be the U.S. economy’s fastest since a 7.9% burst in 1983.

The analysts also lifted their forecasts for inflation and job growth from last month’s survey. The new poll found that they expected consumer prices would rise 2.48% by December from a year earlier and projected that employers will add an average 514,000 jobs a month over the next four quarters.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 11.62%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 40%.  For reference, the average response in February’s survey was 17.51%.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  5.95%

full-year 2022:  3.17%

full-year 2023:  2.44%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 4.97%

December 2022: 4.27%

December 2023: 3.97%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.78%

December 2022: 2.15%

December 2023: 2.43%

CPI:

December 2021:  2.48%

December 2022:  2.30%

December 2023:  2.31%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2021: $62.23

for 12/31/2022: $61.83

for 12/31/2023: $61.66

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3875.44 as this post is written