The October 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The October 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 15, 2023. The headline is “A Recession Is No Longer The Consensus.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue to ease.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 48%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 98%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the previously published survey] was 54%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 65 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 6 – October 11. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2023:  2.18%

full-year 2024:  .98%

full-year 2025:  2.12%

full-year 2026:  1.99%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2023: 3.90%

December 2024: 4.41%

December 2025: 4.17%

December 2026: 4.02%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2023: 4.47%

December 2024: 3.94%

December 2025: 3.81%

December 2026: 3.72%

CPI:

December 2023:  3.39%

December 2024:  2.41%

December 2025:  2.24%

December 2026:  2.27%

Core PCE:

full-year 2023:  3.54%

full-year 2024:  2.46%

full-year 2025:  2.18%

full-year 2026:  2.16%

(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 4327.78 as this post is written