The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The December 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 26, 2023:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of .03:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed December 26, 2023:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of -.20:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed December 26, 2023:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
–
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of December 22, 2023, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through December 16, 2023, with last value .0503152:
–
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the December 21, 2023 Conference Board press release the LEI was 103.0 in November, the CEI was 111.2 in November, and the LAG was 119.2 in November.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI continued declining in November, with stock prices making virtually the only positive contribution to the index in the month,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Housing and labor market indicators weakened in November, reflecting warning areas for the economy. The Leading Credit Index™ and manufacturing new orders were essentially unchanged, pointing to a lack of economic growth momentum in the near term. Despite the economy’s ongoing resilience—as revealed by the US CEI—and December’s improvement in consumer confidence, the US LEI suggests a downshift of economic activity ahead. As a result, The Conference Board forecasts a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024.”
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4766.50 as this post is written
No comments:
Post a Comment