On March 6, 2024, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2024. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Q1 CEO Economic Outlook Index Signals a Resilient, Accelerating Economy“:
The overall Index increased by 11 points from last quarter to 85, slightly above its historic average of 83 for the first time since 2022. CEO plans for capital investment and expectations for sales are up by double digits from last quarter. Additionally, plans for hiring ticked up modestly.
also:
In their second estimate of 2024 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.1% growth for the year. This is up marginally from the 1.9% growth projected in their first estimate last quarter.
In a special question posed this quarter, CEOs were asked whether they believe that government policies are undermining American free enterprise. Over 75% of CEOs answered “yes.” Of those who answered in the affirmative, 92% of CEOs cited excessive regulation and 63% cited overreaching antitrust actions as policies that are undermining or present a risk to the free enterprise system and the benefits it provides.
On February 8, 2024, The Conference Board released the Q1 2024 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 53, up from the previous reading of 46. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:
CEOs’ views of current economic conditions improved markedly. In the Q1 survey, 32% of CEOs reported general economic conditions to be better than they were six months ago, up from just 18% in Q4 of last year. Just 22% said conditions were worse, down from 32% in Q4. Similarly, future expectations strengthened: 36% of CEOs in Q1 expect general economic conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 19% last quarter. Moreover, only 27% expect conditions to worsen, down significantly from 47%. CEO expectations for conditions in their own industry followed a similar upward trend.
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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 5157.36 as this post is written
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