The October 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The October 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 14, 2024. The headline is “’Economists Say Inflation, Deficits Will Be Higher Under Trump Than Harris.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

The survey found that economists’ outlook had brightened since July. They now expect U.S. gross domestic product to expand 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from a year earlier, compared with an average forecast of 1.7% in July. Inflation as measured by the consumer-price index is seen at 2.5% at the end of this year, down from a July forecast of 2.8%.

Meanwhile, unemployment is seen closing this year at 4.2%, little changed from in July. It was 4.1% in September.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 26%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 56%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the previously published survey] was 28%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 66 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 4 – October 8. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2024:  2.21%

full-year 2025:  1.92%

full-year 2026:  2.15%

full-year 2027:  2.13%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2024: 4.24%

December 2025: 4.33%

December 2026: 4.18%

December 2027: 4.14%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2024: 3.86%

December 2025: 3.71%

December 2026: 3.72%

December 2027: 3.80%

CPI:

December 2024:  2.50%

December 2025:  2.30%

December 2026:  2.27%

December 2027:  2.26%

Core PCE:

full-year 2024:  2.62%

full-year 2025:  2.13%

full-year 2026:  2.09%

full-year 2027:  2.13%

(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5815.03 as this post is written