Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate.
The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at elevated levels.
As seen in the April 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey the consensus (average estimate) among various economists is for .78% GDP in 2025, 1.83% GDP in 2026, and 2.12% GDP in 2027.
Charts Indicating U.S. Economic Weakness
Below is a small sampling of charts that depict weak growth or contraction, and a brief comment for each:
University of Louisville and Oklahoma State University: LoDI National Index (LODINIM066N)
The LoDI National Index is described in FRED as:
The LoDI Index uses linear regression analysis to combine cargo volume data from rail, barge, air, and truck transit, along with various economic factors. The resulting indicator is designed to predict upcoming changes in the level of logistics and distribution activity in the US and is represented by a value between 1 and 100. An index at or above 50 represents a healthy level of activity in the industry.
As seen in the long-term chart below, the index appears to have recently peaked.
Shown below is a chart with data through June 2025 (last value of 76.13306), last updated June 2, 2025:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -1.3%:
source: University of Louisville. Logistics and Distribution Institute and Oklahoma State University, University of Louisville and Oklahoma State University: LoDI National Index [LODINIM066N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed June 4, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LODINIM066N
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Quits: Total Nonfarm (JTSQUR)
Quits (Quits: Total Nonfarm [JTSQUR]) have recently declined significantly. This measure had a value of 2.0 through April 2025 as of the June 3, 2024 update, as shown below:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -9.1%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed June 4, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
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Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for Commercial and Industrial Loans from Large and Middle-Market Firms (DRSDCILM)
“The Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for Commercial and Industrial Loans from Large and Middle-Market Firms” measure has been notably weak. The current value is -20.3% as of the May 12, 2025 quarterly update:
source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for Commercial and Industrial Loans from Large and Middle-Market Firms [DRSDCILM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed June 4, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSDCILM
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Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks (HTRUCKSSA)
Sales of “Heavy Weight Trucks” (HTRUCKSSA) has recently been faltering. Shown below is this measure with last value of 37.130 Thousand through May 2025, last updated June 6, 2025:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -7.9%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks [HTRUCKSSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed June 8, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HTRUCKSSA
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Other Indicators
As mentioned previously, many other indicators discussed on this site indicate weak economic growth or economic contraction, if not outright (gravely) problematical economic conditions.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 6000.36 as this post is written
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