Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate.
The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at elevated levels.
As seen in the July 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey the consensus (average estimate) among various economists is for 1.03% GDP in 2025, 1.87% GDP in 2026, and 2.04% GDP in 2027.
Charts Indicating U.S. Economic Weakness
Below is a small sampling of charts that depict weak growth or contraction, and a brief comment for each:
Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for Commercial and Industrial Loans from Large and Middle-Market Firms (DRSDCILM)
“The Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for Commercial and Industrial Loans from Large and Middle-Market Firms” measure has been notably weak. The current value is -28.6% as of the August 4, 2025 quarterly update:
source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for Commercial and Industrial Loans from Large and Middle-Market Firms [DRSDCILM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 6, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSDCILM
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All Employees, Temporary Help Services (TEMPHELPS)
I have written extensively about many facets of employment and unemployment, as the current and future unemployment issue is of tremendous importance yet is in many ways misunderstood.
One theory regarding employment is that hiring cycles typically begin with an uptake in temporary employment. Conversely, due to various factors a reduction in temporary employees can be an (early) indicator of lessening labor demand.
Shown below is this TEMPHELPS measure with last value of 2,521.6 (Thousands) through July 2025, last updated August 1, 2025:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -2.8%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Temporary Help Services [TEMPHELPS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 6, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEMPHELPS
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Average Weekly Overtime Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Manufacturing (AWOTMAN)
Various U.S. manufacturing measures continue to indicate growth. However, overtime hours for manufacturing is somewhat subdued by recent-era economic expansion standards and the measure on a Percent Change From Year Ago basis has recently been negative.
Shown below is the “Average Weekly Overtime Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Manufacturing” measure (with last value of 3.6 hours through July) last updated August 1, 2025:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -2.7%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Weekly Overtime Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Manufacturing [AWOTMAN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 6, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWOTMAN
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Quits: Total Nonfarm (JTSQUR)
Quits (Quits: Total Nonfarm [JTSQUR]) have recently declined significantly. This measure had a value of 2.0 through June 2025 as of the July 29, 2025 update, as shown below:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -4.8%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 6, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
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Other Indicators
As mentioned previously, many other indicators discussed on this site indicate weak economic growth or economic contraction, if not outright (gravely) problematical economic conditions.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 6345.06 as this post is written
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